This article is about money management and
trading psychology. This is the lesson that you never get with 99% of other
Forex systems that you have come across.
I find it interesting that most of the
systems out there dont include this because if they actually were successful
traders, they would know that this was the key to success and to leave it out
makes an incomplete system that wont work!! This tells me that the people that
wrote them or are selling them arent traders at all. They are just in the
business of selling HOPE!
Well, if you havent noticed yet, I am a
trader, and I am different than the others. Dont get me wrong, there are honest
trainers out there, I learned from one and I am eternally grateful to him.
So lets get on with this. First of all, this
is my own interpretation of several sources, and the practices that have worked
for me. Please read EVERYTHING you can find on trading psychology, and money
management. There are a lot of slightly different views but overall, they are
very similar and the main important points are all pretty much the same.
There are two main issues that cause 99% of
the problems. Can you guess what they are?
If you answered FEAR and GREED, you are
correct. These two emotions are probably responsible for 99% of the worlds
problems as well but that is beyond the scope of this course ��.
So, now that we know what the big obstacles
are, lets try and figure out how to overcome them. In the course of my
lessons, I have listed a few but I will put them all together here in one place
so that it is easier to follow, and perhaps make it easier for you to develop
your own system to help you trade better.
We cant eliminate fear and greed. They will
still be there in your heart and mind, but we can make some rules so that they
dont interfere with your trading success. We can come up with systems and
procedures to follow, since we KNOW ahead of time that fear and greed are major
problems. Im sure you have heard the statistic that 95% of all speculative
leveraged traders FAIL. This is absolutely true. Here is another statistic that
I
believe100% of traders that dont know how
to overcome fear and greed will FAIL. So does that mean that if I can teach you
how to overcome these problems that your chance of success is 100%? Of course
not. But I can tell you that you cannot be successful if you dont protect
yourself from yourself.
In lessons 1-3 I have outlined a trading
system. The first thing you must do, whether you follow my system, another
system, or your own system is to follow the rules of the system WITHOUT FAIL.
If your system calls for a certain entry point, do not enter until there is a
signal to enter.
Systems are designed for a reason. That is
why it is called a system. What do we learn from this? Patience. Perhaps the
stupidest thing you can do is enter a trade on a hunch.
This brings us to our first FACT:
The odds are in your favor before you
enter a trade. This is true for most trading
systems. Void of fear and greed, if you follow each system exactly, you will
profit. Some systems may offer better profits than others, but overall you
should be able to profit with any system, IF you have no fear and no greed.
This brings us to THE BIG SECRET. Other than
omitting trading psychology, other systems also dont tell you that you are
playing a game of odds. Lets say for example that we are playing coin toss.
Theoretically, for 100 flips of the coin, 50 will come up heads, and 50 will
come up tails. Of course, the first 100 may be 55/45, but the more you play,
the closer to 50/50 the numbers will get. Our system for coin toss is as
follows: We play for 20 hours, and flip the coin exactly 5 times each hour, and
for every heads that comes up, we get paid 2, and for every tails that comes
up we pay 1. This should be a profitable system. After our game we see that
heads came up 50 times and tails came up 50 times. (Stay with me here). So at the
end of 100 tosses, we have paid 50 and received 100. A profit of 50.
So lets say that during our second game of
coin toss, we decide that we are going to let the flipper(hint: the market is
the flipper) keep flipping the coin for an hour while we take lunch but we are
not going to pay or be paid for those flips. During our lunch hour, heads comes
up 5 times in a row (which is theoretically possible, and not that unlikely).
And now we are back from lunch, and we are down 10 for the hour. Now, theoretically
the odds of 5 tails in a row coming up after 5 heads in a row are pretty good
because for every ten tosses, you should have about 5 heads and five tails. So
now we get 5 tails in a row and now we are down another 5, for a total of 15.
So not counting the 5 tosses during lunch, this leaves 90 tosses that we still
have to account for and lets say that they were 45 heads and 45 tails. Our
profit for these tosses is 45 (45x2 minus 45x1), now if we take away the 15
for the tosses we didnt take, and that string of losers, we are left with a
profit if 30. So lunch and 5 lousy spins cost us 40% of our profits.
Now this is theory but it absolutely applies
to this market. If you are picky about what trades you want to take and what
trades you dont want to take, you are MESSING
WITH THE ODDS. My
point for this whole big story about coin toss is this: If the conditions are
met, TAKE THE TRADE without hesitation. The odds are in your favor, but only if
you take ALL of the trades that meet the conditions. When I say ALL trades I
know the market is open 24 hours a day and you cant possibly take every trade.
You need to pick a time frame and stick to that same time frame everyday and
take ALL trades during that time frame.
I can tell you that
in the month before I realized this (my first month of trading real money
actually), my total profit was 92 pips. I had an idea of what I was doing wrong
so I was keeping track of the trades that I didnt take along with the ones
that I did. I included entry point, day, time, and whether the profit target
was hit or if it was stopped out. Dont get me wrong, I was extremely happy to
be in profit after trading for only one month with real money. But then I went
back and looked at the numbers for what could have been. Guess what? Had I
taken every trade that met my conditions, my profit for the month would have
been 355 pips! I was not happy. But soon I realized that I had messed with the
odds. After realizing what I had done wrong (or not done right in this case) I
began to have more confidence in my systems. The very next month my total
profit was 515 pips, or a 560% improvement just for taking all of the trades
that met the conditions. I think that is enough said about that.
Sorry to stay with
the coin flip game here but it actually works very well in teaching these
principles. This brings us to
FACT #2. You do
not need to know what is going to happen to make money. If we know that we
are going to make 2 fifty times and pay 1 fifty times as long as we flip the
coin, are we going to play? Of course! Well, all trading systems have similar
odds. From my testing, I know that this system on average will produce 9 wins
of 20 pips for every 1 loss of 40 pips (that number may vary but that is the
maximum loss I ever take). So we know ahead of time that 9 wins at 20 pips is
180 pips, and minus the loss of 40 pips, leaves us with 140 pips profit. Now
keep in mind that you may be 8 and 2 this week and 10 and 0 next week. We never
know when a loss is going to come. We may even lose every trade for a week, but
not lose a trade for the next 9 weeks. Believe me it happens. You do not need
to know exactly what is going to happen, you just need to take every trade that
meets the conditions and then count your profits at the end of the
month/week/year etc.
This section deals
with money management as well as psychology. Back to coin toss for a minute. We
know that each win brings us 2. And we know that for each win in this trading
system we get 20 pips. We know that each tail that comes up costs us 1. And in
our system we know that each loss is 40 pips. If we know what our loss is going
to be ahead of time, we know what it is going to cost us to find out what is
going to happen. From this we can decide how much we want to risk based on our
account size.
FACT 3: You know
how much it will cost to find out. I have decided not to ever risk more
than 5% of my account on any one trade. So knowing that, I can figure out how
many lots to trade ahead of time based on my account size. It may cost 250 in
margin for a 1 lot position but this is not what we are risking, we are
actually risking ten dollars times the number of pips in our stop. If our stop
is 40 pips, we are risking 400. Now we know that we better have at least 8000
in our account to take a position of this size. If this trade turns out to be a
loser, and our balance falls to 7600, we know that we cant afford to take
that trade again because a loss of 400 is more than 5% of our balance. We
would need to adjust our number of lots down accordingly to keep our risk
<5%. We also dont want to increase our lot size to try and make up for that
loss. Always reduce your risk if your account balance falls. The next thing we
dont want to do is immediately increase our lot size after a winning trade. It
is better to trade at the same lot size for 15 or 30 days at a time before
increasing lot size. This allows the account to build steadily without large
swings in either direction.
FACT 4: There is
a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables
that define an edge. Your trading system is your edge, but you never know
in what order your wins and losses will come. Be prepared for this and accept
the losses, knowing that the odds are still in your favor.
This brings us to
our final two facts.
FACT 5: Every
moment in the market is unique. Yes we use pattern recognition to define
our edge but there are so many variables in this market that it is impossible
to ever have the conditions exactly the same as any other moment. You could
play 100 games of coin toss and no game will have the exact same order of wins
and losses, even though they may have similar outcomes.
FACT 6: Because
of fact #5 we know that ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. This is why it is important to
follow the trade rules exactly and play the odds.
Every broker/trading
system has a disclaimer that says basically do not trade with money you cant
afford to lose. The best thing you can do when you open your real money
account is to mentally consider that money GONE. If you are not afraid to lose
it, you will save a lot of stress and your trading will improve. Only you can
determine what you can afford to lose, so just dont put more in there than you
are willing to lose. Compounding is an amazing thing that we will talk about in
section 5, and the money will come if you follow the rules. If you start with
less, it will just take a little longer but once again you will save a ton of
stress.
TRADING WITHOUT
FEAR AND GREED
1. I Objectively identify your edges. You have a
system here that works, enough said.
2. I Pre-define the risk of every trade. We covered
that in FACT #3.
3. I Completely accept the risk. Consider the money
GONE.
4. I ACT on my edges without reservation or
hesitation. Follow the rules and take every trade that meets the conditions.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available.
Take your 20 pips and be happy, or trail your stop. Even if you are compounding
your account, pay yourself something out of your profits each month. It will
make you feel better. (On a side note: I take 20 pips for every trade until I
am up 200 pips for the month. I do not even think of trailing my stops until I
am up 200. Once I am comfortably in profit, I start to look for solid
opportunities to trail my stop and grab some extra pips.
Even if they only go 20 and then come back, I still
make 5 pips. 20 of those still adds up to another 100 pips.)
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making
errors. I read Mark Douglas book monthly, and make up sheets with my rules on
them that I read daily. This helps me to see plain as day when I make a
mistake.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these
principles, and therefore I never violate them.
I have included a
sheet that you can print out to keep near your computer to read every day. Read
these facts and rules every day even if you memorized them.
Finally,
FOUR STUPID
THINGS
The first stupid
thing you can do is to close a position early because you think it is going to
go against you. Just because you have an edge over the market does not mean
that price will immediately shoot up or down to your target. Price will move up
and down and will even probably move against you before it moves in your favor.
If you let FEAR of LOSS get you, you will lose money. If the market is going to
take you out, let the market take you out by taking out your stop. That is why
it is there. The odds are still in your favor.
The second stupid
thing you can do is to close a position early because you dont think (or you
are AFRAID) that it wont reach your target. If you dont play the odds
properly, you will not realize the full profit potential. What if in our coin
toss game we decided that we were going to take our profit for a heads at 1
instead of the 2 that we were supposed to get paid? If you remember, our
profit was 50 for the first game. If we had only taken 1 for each win, we
broke even. That is a lot of effort for nothing. Even worse, if we make some
mistakes along the way (we all know that we are perfect traders right?) as we
did in game number 2 where our profit was 30, we can lose money by not taking
enough profit. Remember that we had a 15 loss for our mistake and 90 spins
remaining. If we had taken only 1 for each of our 45 winning spins we would
have broke even, minus the 15 puts us down 15 overall instead of being up
30. The system is designed for a 20 pip target, GO FOR IT.
The third stupid
thing you can do is to get greedy. As I said in my sales material, if you had
shot for 30 pips instead of 20 for the trades I listed, the profit would have
been about half of what it was for taking just 20. Interesting how this whole
thing works, huh?
Just taking 5 or 10
pips can be considered GREED as well as FEAR since you are so afraid of loss
that you get greedy for those 5 or 10 pips compared to the potential loss of
20-40 pips. Dont let it get you, follow the rules and be happy with your 20
pips.
The fourth stupid
thing you can do is move your stop, believing that the market will eventually
go in your favor. This is the fastest way to lose money. We are DAY traders.
Yes the market may go in your favor but it may move 300 pips the other
direction before it does, if it does. This could take weeks or months and you
have a limited account balance. If 5% of your account is tied up waiting this
position out, guess what. You are missing 20 other opportunities to make money
instead of just sitting there waiting, down a hundred pips while you miss the
opportunity to make 20 trades for 20 pips each. Maybe you break even, when you
could be up 400 pips. JUST DONT DO IT.
THE BEST THING
YOU CAN DO
Once you place your
trade, and place your stop and limit, TURN YOUR COMPUTER OFF and go do
something else. You are now in automatic mode, and the market will take you
out, either for a profit or for a loss. This is the best way to eliminate the
temptation to succumb to FEAR or GREED and do something stupid.
The rest is up to
you. Only you can decide whether or not to follow the rules and believe in the facts.
This lesson is the most important to your success and I hope you wont take it
lightly. If you are trading and following the rules of your system, and not
making money, you need to take a look in the mirror. It is not the system that
is the problem, it is you. I am not trying to be harsh, but when I was not
making money, it was not the system it was me so you are not alone. Dont give
up, because you can be successful if you just work through and figure out the
problem.
About Author:
Ben Rose
Email: m1ghtyboosh@hotmail.com
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