Middle East
Run-off likely in close Iran presidential election
By Paul Hughes
Jun 14, 2005, 13:26

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Allies of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, front-runner in Iran's presidential race, said on Tuesday he would probably fall short of an outright win in polls on Friday which analysts say are the closest in the Islamic state's history.

Opinion polls show pragmatic conservative Rafsanjani, 70, is favorite to reclaim the post he held from 1989 to 1997.

But the mid-ranking cleric remains short of the 50 percent support needed to avoid a run-off against his nearest rival.

"It's increasingly unlikely that we'll have a winner after the first round," said political analyst Mahmoud Alinejad.

Rafsanjani's closest rivals are outspoken reformist Mostafa Moin, 54, a former higher education minister under outgoing President Mohammad Khatami, and former police chief Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a conservative who is running as an independent.

The tight race has aroused greater interest in the country of 67 million people than many analysts had forecast. But many have still not decided if they will vote and, if they do, who to vote for.

"I want to place my ballot, but whatever I think about the eight nominees, I cannot find anything presenting my opinion," said Ali, 40, a carpet salesman in the Tehran bazaar. "That is the difficulty most Iranians are facing."

Rafsanjani is favored by Iran's business elite, who think he will liberalize the state-heavy economy, and by many in the West who believe he has the political weight to steer Iran's foreign policy toward better ties with the United States.

"Up to now the situation favors Rafsanjani, but reality is sometimes different," Gholamhossein Karbaschi, a former Tehran mayor and close ally of Rafsanjani, told Reuters. "He still doesn't have 50 percent."

SECOND ROUND LIKELY

Rafsanjani aide Mohammad Atrianfar, publisher of the liberal Shargh newspaper, said the former president can count on about 35 to 40 percent of votes in Friday's election. "So this indicates the election will go to a second round," he said.

It would be the first time that Iran's presidential vote goes to a second round. Electoral rules state that the run-off vote should be held on the first Friday after official results are declared, making June 24 or July 1 the most likely dates.

Bomb attacks in three cities on Sunday and Monday killed nine people and injured dozens -- the worst such violence in more than a decade.

Another bomb exploded near the campaign headquarters of several candidates in the southeastern city of Zahedan in the early hours of Tuesday, injuring four people, state media said.

Authorities have blamed the bombings on exile opposition groups hoping to dissuade Iranians from voting. Six people have been arrested and security across the country stepped up.

Alone among the eight candidates cleared to stand, Rafsanjani has not left Tehran during the entire campaign, complaining he lacks the funds and time to travel and relying on his unrivalled name recognition.

Qalibaf's move to soften his tough image as a former Revolutionary Guards commander and Moin's emphasis on human rights have undercut Rafsanjani's efforts to present himself as the only viable moderate in the race.

"Qalibaf is very down to earth. He talks in a language that ordinary people understand and has managed to appeal to many modern middle class voters," said Alinejad.

"Moin, meanwhile, is sending a message that he won't be silent or timid like Khatami was," he said.

Many Iranians complain Khatami, who is ineligible to stand for a third consecutive term, failed to stand up to hard-liners when dozens of reformist journalists, intellectuals and student activists were arrested and scores of liberal newspapers closed.

Atrianfar said the Rafsanjani camp would prefer a run-off against Qalibaf, rather than Moin who draws support from many of the same voters eager to see Iran's isolation from the West lifted, the economy liberalized and social restrictions eased.

But Alinejad said Qalibaf, too, could win the run-off if the other three conservative candidates in the race endorsed him.


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